In 2012 there were 146,800 dentists in the U.S. Of those, 20,000 were specialists, leaving 126,800 general dentists. At the time of this study there were 330,000,000 people in the U.S. Therefore, there are 2623 people available per dentist. Of the specialties, ortho was 7,500, oral surgery was 6,700 with other specialties adding up to 6,400. Total job growth in 2012-2022 is projected to be around 170,200, with general dentists projected to be 146,000 by 2022.
In 2014 Gallup revealed a study in which they had interviewed 178,072 American adults throughout 2013 as part of the Gallup-Healthways Well-Being Index. The poll found that the percentage of adults in the U.S. who went to the dentist in 2013 (64.7 percent) was nearly the same as in 2008 at 65.7 percent, meaning dental attendance hasn’t improved much.
According to the Kaiser Family Foundation analysis of the Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)’s Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) 2014 Survey Results supports these findings as well, although the percentages vary from state to state (see report below).
This means that around 45 percent or approximately 146,000,000 people do not see a dentist. That’s a lot of people. That’s a huge market. The main barrier to seeking dental care as reported by the ADA is cost. With 45 percent not seeing a dentist the number of patients available per dentist is 1,180 (patients/dentist). Not a strong number for a solid practice.
Given the charge to hold or reduce healthcare costs and given the political debate on repealing the Affordable Health Care Act, people will have even less money to spend on dentistry. Medicaid and state-supported programs will shrink as well.
My view is there is a vast untapped and growing market in which making dentistry affordable is the key. Solo practices, given the overhead structure, cannot make dentistry affordable to this market and pay its bills.
Managed-group practices have the best shot at making dentistry affordable to this market, as they can benefit from technology, AI, robotics, empowered auxiliaries, midlevel providers and economies of scale. Some dentists fight over those who can afford dentistry and watch numbers shrink, while smart managed group practices will be going for this underserved market and make it work.
As chronic diseases increase in numbers and severity, with the oral systemic link now firmly established, and as the percent of people who can afford dentistry dwindles, a few entrepreneurs will look at these numbers and figure out a way to provide dentistry to this underserved market. They will “go fishing where the fish are.”
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References:
Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) 2014 Survey
